or president obama for another four years. >> what, if it's over 150? >> i think if it's over 150, you're going to see him a whole lot for the week after that, talking about jobs and how he's creating jobs, yeah. >> um-hum. >> i know that doesn't make you happy. we can pile that on your unhappiness for the -- >> you're just saying either/or, you're not predicting what's going to happen with jobs, right? >> well i've seen as high as 130, as low as 100. i think it's a little too early to talk about it. i think it will be on the low side of that range, but that's why i think under 100 is bad and above 150 would be great. >> the bad numbers really haven't hurt him recently so i don't know if the good number -- i don't know at this point and what's the participation rate going to do? how are they going to play around with that this time, going under eight by the election? >> well, if participation continues to fall off, then yeah. >> right. >> unfortunately that's a pretty wonky, geeky conversation to have. >> doesn't matter if it's under eight, if he can cl

>> he writes a book every week. >> he does. >> interesting, boehner/obama? >> yeah. i think he's spewing polls which, you know, it makes sense. he thought he was on the cusp of getting something big done. it was an accomplishment he could have talked about and he didn't get it done. >> 800, if you try to go up 400, that's 50% more. >> he could make the argument he should cut it right there. he had a pretty good deal. he had revenue on the table. >> i don't think either one of them either one could deliver their base. >> maybe they weren't as close as they thought but he was really upset that day. >>> coming up amazon set to unveil its latest kindle. will it be a game changer in a highly competitive space? ♪ it means cleaner, cheaper american-made energy. but we've got to be careful how we get it. design the wells to be safe. thousands of jobs. use the most advanced technology to protect our water. billions in the economy. at chevron, if we can't do it right, we won't do it at all. we've got to think long term. we've got to think long term. ♪ [ male announcer ] ho

i think obama has a lead. the question is going to be is there something with the late advertising and the visits that juices up romney support in a way that produces a surprise. pennsylvania has not gone for a republican candidate for about five or six presidential elections. so i would be very surprised about if it goes -- >> what's the spread in pennsylvania right now? >> we have not done swing state polling in pennsylvania. because we haven't considered it a swing state. there are polls out there that show obama -- there was one poll out that was commissioned by republicans that showed an even race. other polls have shown three, four points for obama and i think the obama campaign is pretty confident about where they stand there, but we'll find out today. >> here's an answer on dixville notch just looking it up. the 2010 census, there's 12 people there. so fewer people. >> so less people. >> 12 people maybe two of them are younger. >> 16 last time. so seeing an outflow. if there were 16 people, i might loo

." >>> been a little over a week since he met with president obama to talk about avoiding the fiscal cliff and caterpillar's ceo joins us from the nyse to talk about the fix the debt campaign and more. you know anything we don't know, doug, that you can tell us about how this finally looks and whether we do it? >> i don't know if i know any more than you do or not, joe, but we've all been working hard to impress upon our leadership in washington how important this is not to go over the cliff. we had good sessions with republican leadership, democratic leaderships and with president obama in the white house. nobody over there wants to go over the cliff at this time, there's nothing that wants to do it. >> once we get over it, we hope it's a bridge to something that will help you and caterpillar compete better in the world. after the cliff, what do you want? is there any emphasis on corporate tax reform that we need or how to bring $2 trillion back to this country? aren't those things, did you talk about any of those or the cliff? >> we talked about all of those, long-term competitiven

in that car and there were radio callers, people calling in who had made their mind up in the last week and one guy dame on and gave a treatise on free market economics and entrepreneurialship but said i'm voting for obama because i'm gay. this guy -- everything i've ever said about free market he's totally with the republicans on this but he can't come into that party because the party doesn't want him and that's not right. >> our party has to broaden the tent. i went to the republican national convention again and i saw about eight people that looked like me, and it's not just a matter of having more people that looked like me at the convention, brown or other persuasion and ethnicities but also policy. you have to have policy that attracts lots of new people. in addition to having new candidates you've got to have policies that are meaningful to people on immigration, policies that work for women, policies that are meaningful for people who happen to be minorities, and you can't ever have the -- >> during the romney campaign i don't remember seeing and this is no disrespect to joe an

president obama spoke last night, raising the prospects for gun policy changes. >>> in the coming weeks, i'll use whatever power this office holds to engage my fellow citizens from law enforcement to mental health professionals to parents and educators in an effort aimed at preventing more tragedies like this. because what choice do we have? we can't accept events like this as routine. >> joining us now, former vermont governor and cnbc contributor howard dean and david coppell at the cato institute. good morning. am i pronouncing that okay? is it copel? >> just fine. >> we all want the same thing. that is to make sure our children are as safe as they can possibly be when they're in school. how do we do that? does it involve new regulations for guns? >> well, i think the most important thing we can do when we look at all these mass murders and attempted mass murders that are happened recently and over past decade sess one of the things that ties so many of them together is mental illness. the vast majority of the perpetrators are young males, late teens or early or mid 20s who we see at

i'm sure you've seen republicans for the past several weeks say that when obama is production up, it's not true. you disagree? >> well, it's not true. i mean production is way up. but it has nothing to do with president obama. the explosion in supply is primarily out of north dakota, out of the bakkan formation and out of the gulf of mexico for deposits that were explored and bid on years before mr. obama came to office. those are the reasons. mr. obama, the president is taking claim for an oil explosion that quite frankly he had nothing to do with. but the republicans are wrong in trying to say that there's no rise in production. we know that the statistics are there. >> john, real quick, handicap it for us, memorial weekend when the driving season begins -- oil will be where? >> i don't think this is seasonal and i think everybody, i've gotten that question a lot recently. i think that the reasons that prices are higher, have a lot to do with geopolitics and some fundamentals, so i don't really see that we're going to get any kind of a summer surge. i think we're at a pretty healthy

i ask because over the past several weeks the obama administration has tried to reach out to wall street in a way perhaps it hadn't earlier. want to talk a little bit about that relationship post election. in terms of where you think business should be trying to influence or be part of this discussion. >> the business roundtable put a letter today in some newspapers signed by 150 ceos of mostly large companies. i think a lot of smaller companies feel the same way, we want a rational deal. want it market credible. know there will be increases in tax revenues link together with rationale entitlement reform with a rational multiple. that's what the business community wants, not the one specific thing people argue about whether this goes up. business wants a rational deal to go up because it would be good for the united states of america? >> you'll take a higher tax rate. >> yeah. i don't personally care. it's not the 39.6%. they are linked together. no one says i will take a higher tax rate so we can still be irresponsible in spending. you can de link that all you want no one does that in t

>> we're not going to have comprehensive tax reform in the eight weeks between the election and the new congress comes in. we are going to have the mother of all lame duck sessions because you have the bush-obama tax cuts expiring, the temporary fix on medicare position payments and unemployment, the sequester that's supposed to come in for defense early next year and we could have the debt ceiling limit come up. i think they'll reach some type of agreement and but for the big stuff, they will probably kick the can down the road maybe a year, all right -- >> again? >> with target enforcement issues and move to 2014 with comprehensive tax reform -- >> we have a fed manipulating interest rates. you haven't discussed if that's the scenario and the fed wasn't involved, what would happen to our borrowing calls in. >> the largest hoder of our debt is the federal reserve. we're self-dealing in our own debt. rick said we've got the ten years now down below 2%. we have the lowest interest rates in history and the lowest average maturity for any major sovereign nation. it costs us $150 billion fo

one thing i want to ask you, because you are quoted earlier this week saying some of obama's crazy anti-business programs are getting in the way of creating jobs. lot of times his critics on the left say he's been too nice to business, and that he's actually curried favor and bailed out wall street and not main street. what crazy anti-business programs are you talking about specifically? >> well, certainly obama care. i've been a health care provider for 45 years and i have a clear idea of how to improve health insurance. none of those things were in the bill, 2,700 pages that no one read, not the white house, not the house or the senate. 2,700 pages that didn't get the job done. we should have a very vigorous interstate insurance business. when you take a break on cnbc, we're going to see a geico versus all state versus progressive fighting for car insurance and the price goes down. you'll see vonage fighting with at&t and with verizon, and the price of cell service goes down. you don't see that with health insurance. that is one thing that could have been done. i've insured my employees for 45

emergency accounting measures can give the government between six and eight weeks of additional time. >>> president obama winging his way back to washington today, with the fiscal cliff deadline looming. cnbc's eamon javers joins us now with more. with the capital building as a backdrop. all i'm thinking about is the game sunday night. and when i think about washington. but there are other things happening, right, eamon? >> there's a lot of back to town stuff going on here in washington today, joe. we've got the president coming back. he abbreviated his holiday in hawaii. the senate is coming back. the house of representatives meanwhile is going to hold a conference call for all republicans later on today. but it's not clear that all these folks, including the president, are going to have much to do when they do come back to town. there's no deal pending on the table here on the fiscal cliff and we're creeping up here on new year's eve. and then yesterday, as you just mentioned, treasury secretary tim geithner really upped the ante in dramatic stakes in the fiscal cliff end game by sa

five points for obama three weeks ago. real quick -- i think rasmussen comes in at 130. >> and huge stakes for the vice presidential debate. >> let's say he didn't show, biden, is that possible? just to not show up? >> it is. it is possible. and then with joe biden, of course, it's always possible to have some kind of massive gaffe that could really change the race. >> yeah. >> there's a lot at stake here. and, of course, the romney campaign emphasizing that paul ryan is a guy who hasn't had a debate, maybe since high school. so he's debating against joe biden. >> debated -- we've tried to debate ryan here and we've seen him debate with other people, and he's -- i don't know. >> eamon, what about ohio, though? we've talked with chuck todd about this. he sees a way to win without ohio. but basically have to win eight or nine other states. so it's a much more complicated road to the white house if you don't win ohio. so he had said -- he told us a week or two ago that romney would have to make a decision as to whether the pu

., president obama will deliver his 2013 budge net a few hours. we actually, this is interesting, spoke to clint eastwood last week after he declared halftime in america, in a controversial super bowl ad. we this to say about the way americans spend. >> the last couple regimes have been, are putting us deep in the hole, and i don't know why it's so, such a basic thing. your parents always tell you, when you don't have a dollar in your pocket, you don't spend $2, and that's sort of a basic philosophy of life. but some people think you can just put it off, if you put it off, they print money, that means the money in your pocket becomes devalued and it's not worth as much, and eventually it comes down to zero. >> reacting to this and more our guest hosts david walker, kr, eo of the comeback america initiative and former u.s. controller general. we just had a discussion about this, jared bernstein and douglas hoelts-aiken. if you have 15% revenue and 25% of spending you know one way or another that 25% has to come down. i want to look at ways to get t

and next week, a huge lineup of "squawk" financial newsmakers. learning from the past and protecting the future. we have former wells fargo chairman and ceo, former morgan stanley ceo and the former fed governor. so stay tuned. we'll see you next week with all of that. bob... oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. >>> stock of the day is going to be intel. company cutting its third-quarter revenue estimates. withdrawing its full-year forecast. the demand for chips decline, customers cut inventory instead of adding to it. also macro slowdown, it talked about, around the world. an

democrats were not so thrilled with president obama's performance. the question is going to be has mitt romney been able in a race where he's been clearly behind the president to hurt him enough and sustain that momentum over the next three weeks. that's what's really critical. there have been strong debates, john kerry had a strong debate against george w. bush in 2004. but he wasn't able to translate that into lasting benefit. that's the best of the next three weeks, to see whether romney can keep it going or whether president obama comes out with a higher level of aggression, higher level of energy in the next debate and stop the momentum that romney accumulated last night. >> okay. yeah, i had so many different thoughts, john, as we watched the whole thing. i remember that a lot of republicans were supporting newt gingrich because just for this moment, they wanted -- they thought newt was such a great debater, they wanted to see someone like newt talk to president obama about his policies and about the last four years. and they thought newt would

. >>> as we've been talk being the fiscal cliff this week, president obama and speaker boehner appear to be inching toward a deal. last night republicans announced plan b in case talks fail. they'll be moving to pass their own tax bill as a backup plan to avert the tax hikes. and the automatic budget cuts set to happen next month. it would extend low tax rates except on those with incomes of $1 million and above. president obama's latest position puts that threshold at $400,000. >> at this point, having a backup plan to make sure that as few american taxpayers are affected by this increase as possible. >> now no one expects that the gop bill will pass the democratic-controlled senate. in fact, harry reid said forget it, they're not going to be passing any of these things. but this is another option out this. and it does change the dynamics in terms of who's going to be blamed for raising taxes. we'll see how this plays out. >>> among our guests on the topic this morning is dccc chairman steve israel, congressman from new york. plus, we'll also be talking more about what's at stake in

ipad available in its stores on friday. >>> as oil prices rise, president obama is mounting an election year defense of his record on energy. the white house releasing a report that highlights the administration's progress on reducing oil imports, increasing energy efficiency and investing in clean technologies and alternative fuels. white house officials say that the president understands the impact that high gas prices have on middle class families. by the way according to the most recent lundberg survey the national gas price average jumped 12 cents to $3.81 a gallon for regular. the survey does suggest that price increases are slowing. >>> in our european headlines today, eurozone finance ministers are expecting to announce they will pay their part of a $130 billion euro bailout to greece. nice dancing, joe. >> no, the music. that's the ross music, isn't it? >> it's bad. >> it is, lame. >> the imf will finalize its contribution later in the week. last week's debt swap does not include a messier default or euro exit further down the line. after greece's debt deal officials say the te

if you look at president obama's budget, it's not even a serious document. one of the most depressing meetings i had recently is sitting down with a presidential historian in the senate dining room three weeks ago and if you look back at history, the big issues of our nation have only been solved through presidential leadership, and to sit there at that time and realize there's a 50/50 chance that we could have four more years without any presidential leadership, on the biggest issue our nation faces, that is depressing, and what paul ryan and mitt romney now laying out a clear choice, so that we know we have two people that are serious about solving the biggest issue that our nation has, that is something that creates optimism, and i think they're going to win. i am more excited about this race than i have ever been. >> senator, you look over in europe and see parties that run on austerity, taking things away from people, taking, less government involvement in their lives, and the record's not really that great in terms of what people finally decide to do,

it means we must rein in the skyrocketing cost of health care by repealing and replacing obama care. >> joining us now to talk about both sides of what happened last night also at the convention and what to expect from the democrats next week in charlotte, kelly, president of the polling company she served as the senior advisor and has been on a bunch of times for newt gingrich and his presidential campaign. now a romney support center >> of course. romney/ryan. >> more palatable. jimmy williams is a democratic strategist and previously worked for senator dick durbin and for bush crowd. >> i used to be a republican. >> i'm a big quayle girl as well. >> you maim more so and you became slows. >> i love no politician more than bush. >> that's nice. >> working for dick durbin will do that. >> dick can say some pretty amazing things bp but we forgot about dick after biden. what did you make of last night? what did you make of the three days? >> have a problem with conventions. i think they are dog and pony shows. fine, great, let's go do it. what would be smart if they condense them down

house speaker john boehner and president obama met for the second time this week. both parties are trying to avoid the fiscal cliff. the men had a frank discussion and the lines of communication remain open, although no specific details were released. the meeting came after frustration in washington. this was house speaker boehner earlier in the day. >> republicans want to solve this problem by getting the spending line down. the president wants to pretend the spending isn't a problem. that's why we don't have an agreement. >>> president obama remains hopeful that a deal will get done. he he told a cbs affiliate that he's willing to do a lot more in cuts and spending, i seas, paired up with a little more in revenue. we're going to talk more about this with john harwood in just a few minutes. >> mcafee today. >> today. >> you're doing -- >> i can't even get over it. >> i think he's in florida, right? >> are you going to ask him all those -- you know when you get a guy, you like to needle them with questions they don't want to hear? just don't get him too mad at you,

i don't know what the better position to take is for the obama camp. >> the one thing about obama is he tends not to hide very effectively how he is feeling and so when he was feeling confident last week he was at a couple of events and he said i have five more years to do immigration reform. so he's going to fairly well wear it on his sleeve. we'll be able to tell how he's feeling. >> all right. all right, john. i see it's cold there. cold in detroit. >> reporter: it is cold but at least it's not a wind tunnel up on the roof of this building like yesterday. that was crazy. >> either that or -- >> reporter: and, by the way, the calmer the weather here in detroit, the better for romney because romney's vote is coming disproportionately from detroit and the metropolitan area, the suburban areas around detroit where rick santorum does better in the western and northern parts of the state, more rural parts of the state. so good weather in detroit is good news for mitt romney. >> so you are outside. remember you used to fan it in high school so no one would see it. >> the green screen beh

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obama instead will probably hit the road this week to give speeches. >> xwitner is supposed to be coming up with the details. >> aides said mr. obama will hit the road to mobilize public support. just like the last, same speeches over and over. >> you saw warren buffett this morning. >> some interesting points. he had an alternative minimum tax he had been talking about for the really wealthy. >> 30% or something. >> anybody from 1 to $10 million. also talked a little bit about raising the -- >> same thing he's been saying all along. >> he added that when it comes to who should be paying the higher taxes, he wants the threshold to be $500,000. >> and you see steven rattner on on talking about capital gains, deductions and things you've talked about a lot. >> time for the global markets report. ross westgate totally still confuse aed about thanksgiving and pilgrims. what was all the hoopla about? you celebrate boxing or something, don't you? like we lost a great boxer. is that what you celebrate? what is boxing day? >> boxing day, the day of a christmas. >> you wrap all your presents in b

are going to take the senate under the guise that the last two times we did entitlement reform weeks had a divided government, reagan/o'neil, clinton/gingrich. now, i should be clear, between now and the end of july i'm decidedly negative on the markets and don't see any way to get much going on the up side. that's sort of a fall call we're talking about here. >> real quick, end of july, is there a bottom in here now? what do you if you're an investors? >> you stay really defensive in my opinion. we need global growth to stabilize. >> what happens at the end of july for you? >> we will potentially have seen the worst of deleveraging impact, perhaps asian exports start to rebound but that's a big if. additionally we'll be through earnings season, we'll be through the two fed meetings. if financial conditions have tightened enough, we could get another round of fed stimulus at the end of july. >> we're playing for stimulus. that's what we're playing for now. not even a good economy, we're playing for stimulus. >> i don't see too much hope of the economy picking up any time soon and wou

some people, even in this ild about, called it the obama rally. do you give the president credit for what's taken place over the past several months, given the jobs numbers? >> first of all -- >> and stock market. >> we talked when we were on before. the jobs numbers are better and we should celebrate that. the fact is, though, that we still have a lot of people who are not looking for work, because they have left the job markets. so instead of being 8.3%, we should be at 8.5 or 8.6%, just on that alone. if we had the labor participation rate, prerecession now, we would be at about 10% unemployment. hardly something to celebrate. so, yes, we're making some progress, but we have a long way to go. and again, this recession was relatively deep, but the recovery is the weakest in modern history. so we're still down about 5.5 million jobs, as compared to the '81 recession, when we were up six million jobs by now. as opposed to the so-called jobless recession in 2002-2003, when we were up 15,000 jobs. it's time for us to reform our taxes, regulatory rel

we get to see each other almost every week now. >> it's amazing. you did a great job on kudlow. >> i loved hearing you. and what we have is what this country needs. i don't know why we can't get it, do you? >> yeah, we can work this stuff out if we can sit down and talk instead of sloganeeing all the time. >> well, you forget the 9 million. >> i've got to watch you like a hawk. but anyway, thanks, governor, we appreciate it. >> see you guys later, thanks. >>> coming up, the case for precious metals. where eric sprott is raising investing more than $10 billion. >> rise of the machines. >> it's coming. it's coming. after watching that jeopardy with that ibm, it's coming. california moving one step closer to sky net. at optionsxpress we create easy-to-use, powerful trading tools for all. like our all-in-one trade ticket. we put strategies, chains and positions all on one screen. start trading today with optionsxpress by charles schwab. and those well grounded. for what's around this corner... and the next. there's cash flow options from pnc. solutions

but obama's intrade is 52. i hope you're putting a little away for that million dollars i got coming to me when the media's favorite might have some trouble in november. just maybe every week put some in pre-tax. all right? >> appreciate the investment advice. >> but larry will probably say that. first thing i said it's news coming out of europe but we get news every day out of europe. sometimes it goes up, sometimes i want goes down. >> the news today, the data today wasn't that encouraging. that's why i'm talking about the stimulus theme. >> central banks. >> weaker gdp. yeah. wasn't a great mix. >> that's what we were talking about the concerted effort. all i know is that you went over there right before the biggest party that country ever had and i don't think that's a coincidence? right? you're set up for the 60 we're jubilee. oh, gee am i here? >> and wimbledon. >> followed by wimbledon and olympics. >> are there any pubs in london? >> no. i don't think so. >> you haven't spotted any. >> haven't had any g

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at that point for the next week the liberal blog os fear as well as president obama almost threatened the supreme court to not intervene in the will of the people, like the people have challenged constitutionality. is it a shock to find a government institution has declining ratings? is it a front page story possibly the day before we hear something to once again attempt to intimidate the supreme court into not throwing this law out? >> i didn't have a problem with the poll. the idea that 44% of americans -- >> is that a surprise, though? >> no, it's not a surprise. i don't necessarily think it indicates that people think this is right leaning justices are doing this alone. my indication is that we know more about the justices and their opinions because there's been so much information that's been written, so much coverage of of the questions that were asked, and kagan, questions brought up about her leanings on this, too. >> both of the cases cited as causing people to question the supreme court's bias as ideology, citizens versus bush and gore. when president obama was intimidating

>> i was also in europe this week and the europeans are not nearly as pessimistic as we are about it but certainly if i were in the obama white house i would have preferred something a little bit more decisive. what draghi does at this point and whether he can follow through and at least whether he can keep europe from dropping into a much more catastrophic situation before november has probably as much of an impact on obama's chances for relocation as anything mitt romney does. >> i'm looking forward, i got something that says "i know it's old news but isn't it odd obama calls hollande to discuss europe and the euro yet unwilling to call boehner and discuss the economy in the u.s. we haven't had a budget in three years. >> we had a budget, the budget control act that vold tfollowed debacle over the debt limit was a budget enacted into a law, whereas budget resolutions don't mean that much. the problem we have now is you've got the republicans in congress who decided that the act they all signed onto and where boehner said i got 98% of what i wanted now they don't like any part of it

transparency would help this problem and i had an opportunity proposed to president obama's people that he do this, that he get on national television instead of demonizing the insurance company and he'd say to people, next week, i'm going to order the veterans administration hospitals and the u.s. base military hospitals to post on the internet every morning at 8:00 in the morning the newly identified hospital acquired infections. >> we'll return to this, we'll return to this once again. >> we have three hours and then -- >> this is what i have to do or else it's like me not washing my hands right here. >>> coming up the long road to economic recovery, we've got austan goolsbee, one of our favorites, to talk about what it takes to get jobs manufacturing and investments in u.s. growing again, he'll talk investments as well and paul and mr. goolsbee i'm sure can do something interesting here. >>> the most sweeping piece of welfare legislation since the new deal, why the ceo of mt. sinai hospital says the affordable health care act must be implemented and what it means for patient health

is who he is and he's been that person the entire time and what you saw on the debate at least last week were two guys that were unfiltered. the american people got to see that for the first time, and i think they liked what they saw about governor romney. he's not the guy that barack obama is trying to paint as some, you know, evil guy who wants to, you know, raise taxes and not have any way to pay for it. the people have seen that's not the case, and so i think that matters. i think people want that kind of real, authentic debate and i think they're going to get that tonight again. >> you know, reince, one of the points roger was making was the tax plan was a little different, there were more details than many people heard before, maybe that is what caught president obama a little off guard, it was not the argument that he had necessarily prepared for. was that part of the strategy to say okay, we're going to open up and tell a whole lot more at this moment? >> no, i don't think so. seriously, i mean, this is just not the case. i mean he i think had the strategy, though, to set the rec

>> for obama? >> yeah. >> most people are attributing it to gas prices and -- honestly, i don't know. i was very surprised by that because just a week ago we had an nbc/"wall street journal" -- i think we had him at 49. >> right, right. >> for as well as he's doing his job it makes no sense to you. >> you were surprised, too, joe. >> i'll tell you the one thing, john, that you have not mentioned is gallup flipped in the last three or four days. gallup totally flipped on the three-day track. and they say they're always right and it's 49% approve, 43 di disapprove now. 44% disapprove, and now gallup in the last three or four days obama's approval rating has surged to 49%. disapproval 43%. it is weird. you have nbc/"new york times" -- >> i will say the gallup -- joe, the gallup track has seemed over the last couple of years to be quite volatile and i will say when they had obama on the down side, the obama people were very scornful of that poll. >> so now they like it. >> no, no, but i'm saying that t

plus president obama and mitt romney will be squaring off in the second presidential debate tonight. this is a town hall format. both sides say their candidate is ready. >> mitt's prepared. mitt's confident. mitt's got a good presence about him. >> i'm smiling, i'm giving a thumbs up if he can see it. i assume that he can, so i make sure that i'm always giving him that positive love. >> john harwood will join us onset in just a few minutes with a preview. in fact he's standing right over here. first, though, let's get to the morning top stories. >> united healthcare is reporting, $1.50 a share is pretty good about that well above the estimate of 1.34. united healthcare is also forecasting full year 2012 net of 5.20 to 5.25. with that 16 cent beat in the third quarter, it should make it easier to hit those numbers even without any increase in where the fourth quarter is. the medical care ratio, consolidated care ratio, 79% in the period. third quarter revenue was 27.62 billion. not bad on the first call side. company earned -- or had 27.62 in revenue. so all in all, looks like a prett

this is his week. >> yes. >> how will he define himself so we can see he's a leader and can get these things done? >> certainly what i've come to know if terms of governor romney from a personal situation he puts faith and family first. from the governing standpoint he'll put america first, not worried about re-election. he has a great opportunity now and i'm sure he'll seize it. i've seen him give speeches in person and that doesn't get always covered so you have that filter through the media but this is the moment when you stand up on that stage and you can describe to the american people about why you want to do this, and again, you know, he certainly convinced me he's doing this because he loves his country, he's highly concerned about it. he wants to save the nation and that's what he'll convey on thursday night, i'm positive. >> do you get tickets to the debates, senator? are they offered to you? >> joe, i'm new here. i'm taking this one step at a time. this is my first convention. i hope i get some tickets. >> what do you think the ticket to the vice presidential debate is goin

know, imported oil, and the obama administration, whether, we've heard that domestic production has gone up every year but then republicans say that it's still too hard, too many permits. what should we be doing with hydrocarb hydrocarbon, just talking about the overall benefit of switching to alternative energy anyway. what should we be doing? >> okay, well first, just you have to cut this argument in two pieces. short term, what can be done about prices? the best thing obviously is for the saudis to convince the markets that they will actually replace every barrel that iran takes off production with a new barrel of oil, and they have the capacity. they have 2.8 million barrels of extra unused capacity. iran total exports are 2.2 million. so if they keep at it, that will help in the short term. in the long-term obviously we have to wean ourselves away from foreign oil, and there are lots of ways to do that. first, people always talk about the supply side. the greater asset is the demand side, in fact the number one thing that will reduce oil imports is the fact that we raised milea

last week there was a lot of public officials with epithets. we did did the obama stuff. parentally bloomberg, someone wrote a lot of puns about i relish this and it's a dog eat dog -- all this stuff. he said into the microphone, on the cover of the tabloids, who writes this shih tzu for me? he didn't say shih tzu. he said the word himself. bloomberg, no 32 ounce big gulps but he's there endorsing -- >> a hot dog eating contest. >> does that make sense to you? >> it's hypocritical. that's a good point. and what's with the pot ty mouth? >> everybody laughed. it went over really well. >> you can't say that, though. my kids are starting to use that word. >> my kids, too. both the -- >> you slap them around? >> no, i don't. i don't. >> there you go. >> i'm thinking about it. >> we're being slowly -- >> the whole society is going -- >> give me a break. >> well, you are, you know -- >> what? >> you are right there. >> people should know what you're saying during the break. oh, my god. >> it's unbelievable. >> can we roll back the recording we made? we don't have that? >> we'll

in iowa for example in our poll last week, which showed a much larger margin for obama than other polls have shown and we'll see whether that is borne out based in part of what the likely voter screen looks like, but 35% of the sample said that they had already voted. another 11% set they were going vote early. so what you ended up with was just a little over half of the people voting on election day. romney had a big lead among those, but a disadvantage among those who had already voted. this is a slow rolling revolution in how we conduct elections. the obama team believes they have the advantage, but the republicans have been working aggressively to catch up. the advantage goes to that side. >> got to do it early. that was the comment yesterday -- john know, right? he said vote early in case your toilet backs up on election day. right, john? >> i did not hear that. but maybe that's wise advice. i don't know. >> something could happen. that was the point. >> anything could happen. >> anything could happen anytime. i know. that's why you have to stay watching. >> john, thank you. when w

and that's the process that we're going to be watching over the next several weeks as john boehner and eric cantor, the majority leader in the house, try to figure out what sort of deal they can support and then try to sell it with their members. >> did you, john -- i always ask this same question. did you have any of the chili? >> yes. >> did you have gold star or sky line? >> sky line. we did sky line. we got a three way and a five way. >> chilly spaghetti and cheese onions and beans. >> correct. >> i don't go for full five. >> i tweeted out a picture of the plate. i'm surprised you didn't respond to it or your hair or whoever your ultraego is. >> i'm souring on tweeting. i haven't tweeted in weeks. >> i got smacked down saying the four way is the sweet spot. >> beans is overdoing it. later there's issues. but how great was that chili dog? >> it was awesome. that also triggered another debate because a lot of people from michigan were saying that the cheese coney at skyline is a knock off of the coney island hot dogs this detroit. >> i did not know that. overall, you know, i like thi

president obama among likely voters leads by three points, 49 to 46. that's down from a five-point edge that he had in our poll just about three weeks ago. if you also look at the nbc "wall street journal" maris swing state polls, he's pulled even with president obama in the state of florida. that's the biggest swing state, 29 electoral votes. if you go then to virginia, he's also pulled within two points in virginia. he had been down four or five before. the bad news for romney in these three polls is that in ohio, a state that is critical, romney strategists think they have to win florida and ohio to get to 270 electoral votes. he's still down eight percentage points, and what we've seen across these polls is that obama is increasingly competitive with romney on who would do best to handle the economy. but the fact that we've got a little bit of movement nationally and movement in florida and virginia tells me that there's still some play in this electorate, in this contest, and that's the hope for romney going into this debate tonight. >> what do yo

president obama set to address the issues that have been spooking the markets all week. the fiscal cliff he'll be making an appearance at the white house at 1:00 p.m. eastern time which of course you will see live right here on cnbc. >>> best buy founder richard celts may not buy the company until december and the price may be below the initial $8 billion bid, according to sources quoted by reuters. >>> and as we talked about in the last hour a travel industry deal will see priceline.com buying kayak software for $40 a share in cash or stock or about $1.8 billion to 29% premium for kayak shareholders and comes just about four months after kayak went public. priceline's ceo jeffrey boyd will discuss the deal on "squawk on the street" at 11:00 a.m. eastern time this morning. >>> this morning we are trying to rise above politics and address the fiscal cliff with ralph schlosstein, ceo of evercorps partners and blackrock co-founder. great to have you here today. >> it's great to be here as well. >> we have some problems, we have to come up with a solution, fiscal cliff aroun

. >> still to come, president obama trying to force cooperation with china at this week's nuclear summit, hoping to turn the heat up but -- doesn't forget to tune in on tuesday. donald trump will talk politics. and tim tebow has been tweeting interesting stuff on the jets trade. >>> time >>> time now for today's aflac trivia question. man, i'm glad aflac pays cash. aflac! ha! isn't major medical enough? huh! no! who's gonna help cover the holes in their plans? aflac! quack! like medical bills they don't pay for? aflac! or help pay the mortgage? quack! or child care? quack! aflaaac! and everyday expenses? huh?! blurlbrlblrlbr!!! [ thlurp! ] aflac! [ male announcer ] help your family stay afloat at aflac.com. plegh! in neckarsulm, a great roar was heard and things changed. children adjusted dreams. victories became habitual. thumbs grew new calluses. hollywood hopped on the bandwagon. air traveled in style. and for the first time ever, journalists ran out of adjectives. and so concludes chapter 1 of the legendary audi r8. ♪ demand media expands on the big board. . >>> on this day in 1964

it's still -- there's still a big win forecast for president obama but it was 60 to 61 for months and months and months for about the past four months since the economy started to improve. >> the economy has not been doing so well the last few weeks. last week was the worst performance for the markets we've seen all year and i think people feel that immediately. >> let's look a intrade. >> this goes back to james carville, it's the economy, stupid. right? >> we'll see. >> it's all about what happens directly -- >> romney's at 39 and change. you're still talking 56 versus 39 and change. but then both the senate and the house -- the senate is in the low 60s and the house is in the mid 70s. so it's going to be a great -- i'm still waiting. today's a monday. i'm still waiting to see what happens to obamacare -- >> any monday. not next week, it's memorial day. >> likely sometime in june, early june. maybe mid june. >> eric schmidt, ceo of google -- not ceo. he's the chairman i think. he got an honorary degree at boston college over the weekend. what did he tell the students to do? do you k

. >> and it happened the same week that we weren't -- we hadn't fully digested the netanyahu-obama administration development. when this happened -- if that goes sour -- >> i think i lost the -- >> we lost richard. we do appreciate his reporting as we always do. when we need to go somewhere, he's tlaulz. >> he's the man. >>> let's get you caught up on business headlines this morning. we have a very busy day. the federal reserve policymakers have a busy day ahead of them sells. the fed's latest rate decision and policy statement comes at 12:30 eastern. at 2:00 p.m. eastern the fed will issue the latest economic forecast for the fomc members. at 2:15 chairman ben bernanke will hold the important news conference. >>> realtytrac said just under 100,000 homes entered the foreclosure process. that's down 13% from a year ago. in judicial states like new york and florida, the court must approve any foreclosures. >>> tie beverage which is offering 7.2 billion for the rest. the offer, $4.5 billion for control of the company. heineken says it's studying the latest developments. >>> up next, the president an

be able to say or do that they clearly haven't said or done over the span of the next few weeks that helps settle down the anxiety that exists? or we just have to wait until after the elections and keep our fingers crossed? >> each of these gentlemen has their own message. we can go through the message, romney tends to be a lower tax message, obama tends to be a higher tax message. romney seems to be the pro-business guy, the market friendly guy, president obama took a whack at business, as you well know. >> yep. >> listen, i've been worried about the economy for the last three or four months because of the jobs storstory. the jobs lead into retail sales and consumption, but the fiscal cliff affects business. you've got all of these higher end smaller businesses that pay the llc s corps tax rate which may go up substantially not only because the bush tax cuts expire but the obama tax hikes begin next year. beginning 2013 you could have a $450 billion tax bill and the marginal rates that affect economic growth and incentives go up. how the presidential candidates come out it's mostly

over in south korea, shares rise to a two-week high on exporter stocks. australian markets are bumped up by banks and minors, and with the u.s. election done, we wait on a key leadership meeting in china, which will usher in a once in a decade change of power. that meeting kicks off on thursday and lasts for one week. the china composite ended the day flat. here in hong kong, the hang seng index produced its first gain in three sessions propped up by developers. that's a look at your trading day in asia. back to you guys state side. >> emily, thank you very much. our guest host is mike santoli. we were just talking in the commercial break a little bit about how you look back and it's really easy with hindsight to go back and say what went wrong with the losing candidate. >> yeah. well, initially, if you really look 20 years down the road, you'll see we had this massive financial crisis. banking system and leverage was right at the center of it. a couple years later, the republicans say we need a private equity guy who made his fortune in leverage and he's

maybe not this week but between now and the end of the year under a reelected president obama or under a newly elected mitt romney? >> well, i think under reelected president obama, i would expect to see volatility increase especially as it relates around the fiscal cliff. we need to see them come together, divided government needs to work together. they have not worked together very well over the past couple years so the markets will take a wait and see approach and there's a good chance there will be fighting and brinkmanship until the last second for the fiscal cliff. republican sweep it's more likely they'll kick the can down the road for six months or a year so i would expect to see marginally less volatility in the near term. >> how would you position ahead of things if you're looking at the polls it's hard to make a solid guess on what's going to happen. >> it is. once again in equities we're selective in the names we're buying, we tend to buy high quality companies that are market leaders that are going to be more resilient not just due to political uncertainty but due to the v

i guess schwartz went there but obama won handily in washington. he doesn't want to get on either side of this debate because some independents helped him there and they might not be anti-scott walker. >> donald last week on the program we talked about the birther issue, it became another media fire storm. we actually talked to governor romney about your views and his views on your views about that issue and i wanted you to take a listen to this for a quick second and react. >> i disagree with it. i think there's no question but the president was born in the united states of america. i don't go around telling all my supporters what they should think or what they should say but he knows what i believe about this. i believe the real issues in this campaign and the issues that america cares about are not issues of the president's personality or matters of that nature. >> donald, so should we end this? >> no, he is entitled to his view and i think that's great. look, i made the keynote speech in north carolina this weekend. the biggest applause was whe

so i think a first thing to look at is actually president obama's budget. president obama's budget actually does have specific way to get to additional $1.6 trillion in revenue, people may not like it. we can have a debate around it but it goes line by line as you can get an additional $1.6 trillion in revenue. when it comes to entitlements it has an additional $300 billion in savings. health care it goes line by line. in the next several weeks my guess is we're not going to agree to all those lines. my hope is they agree to overall targets when it comes to entitlements and revenue, they may lay out a number of the ways that you'd end up reaching those targets and several months after that, that actually write the legislation. i think the danger is that when it comes to the discretionary budget, 40% of the budget that's annually appropriate, where you decide how to allocate resources annually, what they decide to do is they end up reducing that category three or five years out. they realize they don't have to make the hard decisions for three to five years

also an obama bundler. >>> i don't know if you saw the op-ed by senator jim demint in "the wall street journal." he lays out a case against internet taxation. we had dick durbin on the program last week, who talked about why we should be talking online retailers the same way regular retailers -- -- regular retailers have to collect sales tax from you in the state they're in, jurisdictions they're in. online retailers have not had to do this. there's been a big movement that even companies like amazon and ebay have signed off on saying, okay, perhaps we should be paying some sort of sales tax as well, or collecting sales tax. the states already can tax you for this and they go after you in your taxes you pay in every year. make you sign up. new jersey's doing this. several other states are doing the same thing. his argument is that there's no taxation without representation. that was something that this nation was founded on. apparently, he's never lived and worked in the new york/new jersey area. if you live in new jersey and work in new york, have you to pay new york taxes for the new